↖︎ Vishal Singh
Youth Risk Behavior Survey · 1991–2023

The Great Sadness

Around 2011, something broke. After a decade of stable — even improving — mental health, American teenagers, and especially teenage girls, began reporting sadness and suicidal thinking at rates the CDC’s survey had never recorded. By 2021 more than half of high school girls felt persistently sad or hopeless. The 2023 data show the first retreat in a decade — small, fragile, and very far from the old normal.

52.6%
of high school girls felt persistently sad or hopeless in 2023 — vs 35.7% in 1999
DOWN FROM 56.6% IN 2021
girls’ rate of attempted suicide relative to boys in 2023: 12.6% vs 6.4%
PAST-12-MONTH ATTEMPTS
2009
the modern low point: only 17.4% of girls had seriously considered suicide, the best year on record
BEFORE THE INFLECTION
66%
of LGBTQ+ students felt sad or hopeless in 2023, double the rate of heterosexual peers
31.4% AMONG HETEROSEXUAL TEENS
01 · The inflection

A flat line for a decade — then a cliff face, mostly for girls

Since 1999 the YRBS has asked students whether, at any point in the past year, they felt so sad or hopeless almost every day for two weeks or more that they stopped doing some usual activities — a screening question tuned to depression, not a bad afternoon. From 1999 through 2011 the answer barely moved: around 36% of girls, around 21% of boys. Then both lines bent upward, and the girls’ line bent twice as hard. Girls went from 35.9% in 2011 to 56.6% in 2021; boys from 21.3% to 28.6%. The 2023 reading — 52.6% of girls, 27.7% of boys — is the first statistically meaningful decline since the climb began, and it still leaves girls 17 points above their 2011 baseline.

Persistent sadness or hopelessness, 1999–2023
Shaded bands: 95% confidence intervals
Girls Boys All students
FIG 1 Percent who felt sad or hopeless almost every day for 2+ weeks in a row, past 12 months. Survey-weighted with design-based 95% CIs. Source: YRBS national files.
02 · The longer memory

Suicidal thinking: a U-shape the crisis narrative forgets

The suicide items go back to 1991, and they complicate the story in an important way. Suicidal ideation was actually higher in the early 1990s than today: 37.2% of girls in 1991 said they had seriously considered suicide. That share fell steadily for fifteen years — to a low of 17.4% in 2009 — before the post-2011 rise clawed back most of the decline (27.1% in 2023). Attempts follow a shallower version of the same U. Whatever went right between 1991 and 2009 — falling violence, better SSRIs, more counseling, less lead, take your pick — went into reverse just as the smartphone era began. The modern crisis is real, but it is a return toward old highs on thinking about suicide, layered on top of unprecedented highs in day-to-day despair.

Suicidality among high school students, 1991–2023
Girls Boys
FIG 2 Past-12-month prevalence, survey-weighted with 95% CI bands. “Considered” = seriously considered attempting suicide. Source: YRBS national files.
Whatever went right between 1991 and 2009 went into reverse just as the smartphone era began.
03 · Who carries it

The burden is not evenly spread

Two cross-sections of the 2023 data locate the epicenters. First, sexual identity: 66% of LGBTQ+ students reported persistent sadness against 31% of heterosexual classmates, and their suicide-attempt rate (20.6%) was three and a half times higher. Students still questioning their identity look nearly identical to LGBTQ+ peers — distress tracks the uncertainty, not the label. Second, the gender gap is remarkably uniform across grades: girls run 23–29 points above boys in every grade from 9th through 12th, with 9th-grade girls (55.3%) the saddest single group — freshman year is the deep end, not the shallow one.

2023 outcomes by sexual identity
Hover for CIs and sample sizes
Heterosexual LGBTQ+ Questioning / other
FIG 3 Past-12-month outcomes (“poor mental health” refers to most of the time or always during the past 30 days), 2023 wave, survey-weighted. Source: YRBS.
Persistent sadness by grade and sex, 2023
The gap barely narrows as they age
FIG 4 Dumbbell shows girls (magenta) vs boys (slate) within each grade; the bar between them is the gender gap in percentage points. Survey-weighted, 95% CIs on hover. Source: YRBS 2023.

The YRBS cannot say why the line bent in 2011 — it measures the wound, not the knife. But it does discipline the theories. Any explanation has to fit a change that hit girls twice as hard as boys, arrived in every grade at once, reversed a fifteen-year improvement, spared no region, and began years before the pandemic. The pandemic made the peak; it did not make the mountain.