↖︎ Vishal Singh
Monitoring the Future · 1976–2023

The Great Divergence

For four decades, American boys and girls finishing high school described their politics in almost the same terms. Then, around 2016, the two lines split — and never came back together.

The headline finding

Young women turned sharply left. Young men did not.

Counting everyone who calls themselves liberal, very liberal, or radical, the share of female seniors on the left climbed from 23% in 2016 to 35% in 2023. Among male seniors it drifted the other way. A gap that was barely visible for forty years blew open to ~16 points.

Share identifying as liberal / very liberal / radical
Shaded band = the female–male gap. Vertical marker = 2016 election year.
Female seniors
Male seniors
Divergence band

“The election of 2016 reads in this data like a fault line.”

The full spectrum

Where everyone went — the whole distribution, one sex at a time.

Each band is a self-description, stacked to 100% of seniors in each year. Toggle between the sexes and watch the blue (liberal) bands swell for girls while, for boys, it is the gray “none / don’t know” band that grows — disengagement rather than conservatism.

Bands sum to 100% each year.
The gap itself

Net political lean: a forty-year handshake, then a rupture.

Here each sex is reduced to a single number — the left share minus the right share. Above the line means net-liberal; below means net-conservative. From 1976 to about 2015 the two sexes stayed within a few points of each other. After 2016 the female line launches upward while the male line sinks below zero.

Net lean = (liberal + very liberal + radical) − (conservative + very conservative)
Positive = net liberal · Negative = net conservative.
Female net lean
Male net lean
Decomposing the shift · 2016 → 2023

Two different stories hide behind one election.

The bars show the change in each label since 2016, in percentage points, on a shared zero axis. Girls poured into liberal, very liberal and radical. Boys mostly drained out of moderate — and the slack was absorbed not by the right but by “none / don’t know.”

Change in share, 2016 → 2023 (percentage points)
Right of zero = grew · Left = shrank.
Female seniors
Male seniors
What to make of it

Three things the data actually says.

1. The split is recent and abrupt. For roughly forty years the male and female trajectories were nearly indistinguishable. The widening is concentrated in the years after 2016, not a slow drift across the whole period.

2. It is asymmetric. Girls moved toward a position (the left). Boys moved away from one (the middle) without clearly adopting another — their largest gain is in the non-committal “none / don’t know” response.

3. The far edges grew for girls. The female “radical” share, near zero for decades, multiplied several times over after 2016, and “very liberal” rose alongside it — the female shift is not just more liberals but more intense ones.

A caution. These are self-labels from teenagers, smoothed annual estimates with sampling uncertainty. They describe identity, not turnout or vote choice — but the pattern is large, consistent, and mirrors trends seen in other young-adult surveys.