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Regulation & Demand for Guns

This article analyzes how regulatory changes and societal events impact firearm sales in the United States, expanding on the analysis presented in this NYT article

Vishal Singh https://vishalsingh.org/ (NYU-Stern)https://vishalsingh.org/
2025-03-08

Background

Glance through the following articles for context:

What Happens After Calls for New Gun Restrictions?

Gun Sales did not Spike after Las Vegas Shooting

The data used here comes from BuzzFeed’s GitHub repository, which provides processed data from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS). The repository converts the PDF reports from the FBI into a structured CSV format covering November 1998 through August 2019.

Link to latest version of parsed CSV file

Handguns vs. Long Guns: Changing Preferences

The relative popularity of handguns versus long guns reflects changing consumer preferences and potentially different regulatory environments.

Impact of Regulatory Changes on Gun Sales

Missouri: Repealing Permit Requirements

From the NYT article: “When Missouri repealed a requirement that gun buyers obtain a permit to buy a handgun in 2007, estimated gun sales went up and stayed up, by roughly 9,000 additional guns per month.”

New Jersey: Proposed Gun Control Measures

Maryland: Implementation of Stringent Gun Laws

Georgia: Spike in Gun Sales

Louisiana: Hurricane Katrina’s Impact

Mississippi: Notable Fluctuations

COVID-19 Impact on Gun Sales by State

To analyze how the COVID-19 pandemic affected gun sales across different states, we conducted a before-and-after analysis comparing the 3 years before March 2020 with the 3 years after.

Detailed Analysis of Top States

The COVID-19 pandemic triggered significant changes in gun-buying behavior. Below we examine the top states with the largest overall increases in gun sales relative to the national trend.

Key Findings from COVID-19 Analysis

Our analysis reveals several important patterns in gun sales during the COVID-19 pandemic:

  1. National Increase: Across the US, gun sales increased by approximately 53.5% on average after the pandemic began.

  2. State Variations: The impact varied dramatically by state, with some showing increases of over 50%.

  3. Top States: The states with the largest percentage increases were Michigan, Alabama, Arizona.

  4. Data Anomalies: When analyzing state-level data, we identified a significant anomaly in Alabama’s data between 2016-2018. This drop likely represents either a reporting change, data collection issue, or a temporary policy change affecting background checks in the state rather than an actual decrease in gun sales. Similar patterns can be observed in a few other states, suggesting a systematic reporting change during this period.

  5. Regression Analysis: Using a simple pre-post dummy variable model, we estimate that the COVID-19 effect resulted in an average increase of 9166 guns per month per state.

  6. Persistent Effects: Most states showed not just a temporary spike but sustained higher levels of gun purchases throughout the post-COVID period, suggesting a fundamental shift in gun-buying behavior rather than just panic buying.

These trends likely reflect a combination of factors: concerns about civil unrest during lockdowns, uncertainty about the future, potential supply chain disruptions, and increased interest in self-defense during a period of social instability.

Conclusion

This analysis reveals several interesting patterns in gun sales in the United States:

  1. Regulatory Impact: Changes in gun laws have measurable effects on sales, with relaxed regulations (Missouri) generally increasing sales and stricter regulations (Maryland, New Jersey) often causing temporary spikes before implementation.

  2. Seasonal Trends: Gun sales consistently peak during the winter holiday season and during the fall hunting season.

  3. COVID-19 Impact: The pandemic triggered substantial increases in gun sales across all states, with particularly large effects in certain states. This suggests Americans responded to the uncertainty of the pandemic by purchasing firearms in record numbers.

  4. Regional Differences: Different regions showed varying responses to COVID-19 and regulatory changes, highlighting the importance of local context in understanding gun purchasing behavior.

  5. Data Quality Issues: Analysis revealed potential reporting inconsistencies in certain states, highlighting the challenges of working with this type of administrative data.

These patterns suggest that gun sales respond to a combination of regulatory, seasonal, societal, and event-driven factors, making it a complex socioeconomic phenomenon worthy of continued study.